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Tempesta Emily: coming soon
#1
Una depressione si sta organizzando a diverse centinaia di miglia ad est delle Piccole Antille. Ci sono buone probabilità che la depressione primaria diventi una vera e propria tempesta tropicale (verrà chiamata Emily) domani. Inoltre Emily considerando alcuni parametri (SST...) è possibile che si rafforzi abbastanza in fretta raggiungendo lo status di uragano già martedì.
Brutte notizie quindi per le Isole Vergini e Porto Rico che certamente sperimenteranno la potenza di Emily a partire da lunedì notte, e quasi certamente dovranno sopportare dei danni, inoltre, le condizioni atmosferiche sono generalmente favorevoli per un ulteriore sviluppo della depressione.

Se questa depressione tropicale si rafforza divenendo una forte tempesta tropicale o un uragano, dovrebbe seguire un percorso verso ovest-nord-ovest percorrendo il bordo meridionale di una vasta area di alta pressione presente in Atlantico, la quale orienterebbe la tempesta entro la fine della settimana verso le Bahamas. I modelli di previsione poi mostrano una "virata" della corrente a getto,nel prossimo fine settimana che potrebbe spingere la tempesta verso nord-est. Questo scenario porterebbe un impatto minimo per la costa orientale degli Stati Uniti, tuttavia, se le condizioni atmosferiche dovessero mutare e se la corrente a getto si localizzasse più a nord, sussisite la possibilità che la tempesta si diriga verso la East Coast.
Questo sistema potrebbe segnare l'inizio della parte più attiva della stagione degli uragani dell'Atlantico. Le tempeste che hanno origine in questa zona dell'Atlantico in passato hanno prodotto gli uragani più forti verificatisi nella zona in Agosto.

Mia libera traduzione e rielaborazione: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/st...ly-s-1.asp

Proviamo a seguirne la sorte nei prossimi giorni.


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Codice:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 312053
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.  A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
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#2
C'è qualche misera possibilità che mi becchi gli ultimi strascichi della tempesta?
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#3
[Immagine: ctKwp.png]
C'è un confine sottile tra uno sbaglio e un colpo di genio; purtroppo dovresti essere un genio per vederlo.

Sheldon Cooper

L'Italia è ancora come la lasciai, ancora polvere sulle strade,
ancora truffe al forestiero, si presenti come vuole.
Onestà tedesca ovunque cercherai invano,
c'è vita e animazione qui, ma non ordine e disciplina;
ognuno pensa per sé, è vano, dell'altro diffida,
e i capi dello stato, pure loro, pensano solo per sé


Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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#4
[Immagine: twoatl.gif]
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#5
Invest 91-L Located 900 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles

I think we have our first potential significant tropical cyclone threat of the 20111 Hurricane Season. Invest 91-L, located about 900 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the overnight hours. It does appear looking at data this morning that a fairly well organized surface circulation exists with Invest 91-L and I fully expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 either later today or at the latest during Sunday morning.

My thinking this morning is that this system will track in a general west-northwestward direction and track across the Lesser Antilles somewhere between the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe on Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

As for strengthening over the next 48 to 72 hours, the circulation, while well established is elongated and satellite imagery indicates dry air both to the north and west of Invest 91-L. The HWRF and GFDL models do very little with this system while the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance forecasts strengthening to a hurricane by Monday. My opinion is that the HWRF/GFDL models may be too weak and the SHIPS/LGEM models may be too strong with intensity. So, I would say tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning, then intensification into a tropical storm by Monday morning and a forecast of this to cross the Lesser Antilles as a 65 mph tropical storm Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

After crossing the Lesser Antilles, the global and track model guidance have some differing opinions on where they track future Emily.

The GFS model, which is the most aggressive of the global models, forecasts a landfall in Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and then tracks across the Turks and Caicos islands Thursday afternoon and Thursday night missing the Bahamas just to the east and missing the US Southeast coast due to a large trough of low pressure tracking off of the East coast at that time.

The Canadian model is also pretty aggressive and forecasts a track after the Lesser Antilles that takes it across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then forecasts this storm to miss the Bahamas and the US East coast well to the east due to a large trough of low pressure.

The European model forecasts a track that takes it across the eastern and northern Caribbean and onshore into Hispaniola on Wednesday where it dissipates.

The consensus track guidance like the TVCN and TVCC models forecasts a track that takes this storm across the island of Dominica on Monday night and then west-northwest from there that would take it very close to the coast of southwestern Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning and then inland into the Dominican Republic on Thursday morning.

So, here are my thoughts: The big question after future Emily tracks across the Lesser Antilles will be where will it track. A large trough of low pressure is forecast to track off of the US East Coast by the middle part of next week and will try to pull this system northward and out into the open Atlantic. My problem with this is that models like the GFS model tend to curve storms too quickly out into the open Atlantic. Remember, initially many of the model guidance members forecasted that Don will pull northward and near the Bahamas several days ago and well that didn’t happen. The global models forecast this trough of low pressure to track off of the US East Coast and then lift out by later next week with a ridge of high pressure building back in. This type of synoptic setup may be one where the trough does not pick up future Emily fully and causes the storm to turn back to the west. The forecast for later next week is obviously a long ways off and a lot can happen between now and then.

My main concern right now are the northeastern Caribbean Islands, including the Leeward Islands from Martinique northward to Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Everyone across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for this potential storm this weekend. Do not wait until watches and warnings are posted and become entangled in the last minute rush to buy supplies. This system is forecast to start affecting the islands of the northeastern Caribbean as early as Monday afternoon and potentially could be a moderate to strong tropical storm or even a hurricane.

Finally, the Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos islands are my other concern as this storm may affect you by later next week. Everyone across the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor this system and go over your hurricane disaster supply kits this weekend.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring this system very closely and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 11 am EDT/10 am CDT Sunday morning.

Our Forecast For Invest 91-L/Emily:
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http://www.crownweather.com
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#6
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#7
Stefano1994 Ha scritto:C'è qualche misera possibilità che mi becchi gli ultimi strascichi della tempesta?

Al momento non ci sono proprio i presupposti affinchè la tua zona venga coinvolta.
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#8
Aggiornamenti

Al momento l'interessamento di Puerto Rico e specialmente della repubblica Dominicana (e parte di Cuba) sembra molto più importante di quanto ipotizzato ieri.

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#9
Speriamo CMC e NOGAPS sbaglino... Sarebbe l'ennesima mazzata per Haiti.
C'è un confine sottile tra uno sbaglio e un colpo di genio; purtroppo dovresti essere un genio per vederlo.

Sheldon Cooper

L'Italia è ancora come la lasciai, ancora polvere sulle strade,
ancora truffe al forestiero, si presenti come vuole.
Onestà tedesca ovunque cercherai invano,
c'è vita e animazione qui, ma non ordine e disciplina;
ognuno pensa per sé, è vano, dell'altro diffida,
e i capi dello stato, pure loro, pensano solo per sé


Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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#10
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

---

Uragano molto probabile.
C'è un confine sottile tra uno sbaglio e un colpo di genio; purtroppo dovresti essere un genio per vederlo.

Sheldon Cooper

L'Italia è ancora come la lasciai, ancora polvere sulle strade,
ancora truffe al forestiero, si presenti come vuole.
Onestà tedesca ovunque cercherai invano,
c'è vita e animazione qui, ma non ordine e disciplina;
ognuno pensa per sé, è vano, dell'altro diffida,
e i capi dello stato, pure loro, pensano solo per sé


Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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