[Luglio 2013] Uragano Erick Cat.1 (Pacifico Orientale)

[Sarmatico]

Eccola qui, la 5° depressione tropicale sul pacifico nord orientale

Codice:

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 98.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Ad ovest possiamo osservare quel che resta di Dalila

[Sarmatico]

Tropical Storm rinominata Erick ,che sembra voler seguire la traiettoria dei suoi predecessori


Forecast intensità dei venti che mostra un rafforzamento di Erik nelle prossime ore, più le Ens di Gfs che sono favorevoli ad una path più occidentale



qui in azione dal satellite GOES a vapore acqueo

[Sarmatico]

Erick si rafforza ,attualmente è nel punto più caldo del pacifico nord orientale. Nell'ultimo aggiornamento ha raggiunto i 65mph e sembra ormai prossimo a raggiungere il grado di categoria 1, il path non sembra subire particolari variazioni.

[Sarmatico]

Nell'ultimo aggiornamento Erick si avvicina minaccioso sulla costa del Messico, con venti molto vicini al grado di Cat.1, 70 mph (110kmh), al momento sono attivi gli avvisi di tempesta tropicale sulla costa occidentale del Messico,da Acapulco a Manzanillo e Porto Vallarta. Il NHC dovrebbe attivare nelle prossime un Orologio Uragano sulla zona più a nord tra San Telmo e Cabo Corrientes.



Basta vedere le Ens di Gfs per notare, l'incertezza della traiettoria

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...HEAVY RAINS FROM ERICK AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 103.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE...HURRICANE
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BETWEEN THE 18 AND 36
HOUR TIME FRAME.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

[Sarmatico]

Da http://www.weather.com
[ATTACH=CONFIG]28882[/ATTACH]
T.S. Watches/Warnings
[ATTACH=CONFIG]28881[/ATTACH]

[Sarmatico]

80 mph-130 kmh è ufficialmente un Uragano

HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 104.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[Sarmatico]

Landfall ormai scongiurato per Erick, che continua a muoversi verso nord-ovest a 15 kmh, a circa 140 km da Manzanillo ,dove è attivo l'avviso di Tempesta tropicale. Una volta superata la punta di Puerto Vallarta, sarà interessante seguire la sua traiettoria sul Golfo della California

[Sarmatico]

Un video di ieri :
[video=youtube;w008W_SedBM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w008W_SedBM[/video]

[Matte92]

ottimo thread, interessante isi:

[Sarmatico]

Erick declassato a tempesta tropicale, nelle prossime ore si avvicinerà sfiorando il Golfo della California